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India is set to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan in terms of nominal GDP, according to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook.
The report projects India’s GDP to reach $4.187 trillion next year, just ahead of Japan’s $4.186 trillion.
This milestone highlights India as the fastest-growing major economy. The IMF expects India to maintain a strong growth rate of over 6% through 2025 and 2026—higher than any other major economy.
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Meanwhile, Japan’s economy is expected to grow slowly, at just 0.6% in both years, due to weak global trade. This contrast in growth will likely shift the global economic rankings.
By 2028, India is also expected to surpass Germany to become the third-largest economy, with a projected GDP of $5.584 trillion, compared to Germany’s $5.251 trillion.
The IMF notes that Germany is facing economic pressure from ongoing trade tensions in Europe, with zero growth expected in 2025 and a slight recovery in 2026.
The United States is expected to stay the world’s largest economy in 2025, with a GDP of $30.5 trillion. China will remain second with $19.2 trillion. However, growth in both countries is likely to slow down.
The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025 and slightly less, at 1.7%, in 2026.
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